Welcome all to the big dance as we have finally arrived at the most unpredictable time in the NFL season. There will be no repeats this year as the Gmen failed to get a seat. Before I continue, I must apologize for my absence as I have been traveling over the last few weeks. Anyway, after another grueling 16 game injury ridden year, we have finally entered the big dance. Sure the NHL playoffs are fast paced, the players actually try in the NBA playoffs, and each pitch in baseball could be a game decider, but what makes the NFL playoffs so entertaining is that anyone can win on any given Sunday in a league who has its balls deep in parity. Sure, there are a lot of similar faces, but every team has proven that they are vulnerable. Well, maybe everyone except the Broncos.
Saturday Games
4:30pm-Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (u43)
Is it just me, or are these teams surprisingly similar. They both have strong QB’s in Schaub (4008 yds and 22 TD’s) for the Texans and Dalton (3669 yds and 27 TDs) for the Bengals. They both have game changing receivers between AJ Green (1350 yd) for Cincinnati and Andre Johnson (1598 yds) for the Texans. They both rely heavily on the play action as both teams have strong, reliable backs. The Bengals stride with the law firm (although he might be out this game) Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis (1094 yds and 6 TD’s) who was worth the retainer this offseason, and the Texans have one of the most dynamic running backs in the game in Arian Foster (1424 yds and 15 TD’s). The reason though that I’m picking the under is that Schaub has been slightly off this year and Dalton can be too conservative at times even though he has 20 turnovers in 15.5 games this year. Plus, both teams have strong defenses lead by game changers.
Andy Dalton has the propensity to throw the ball hence his 32 balls batted or tipped (3rd most in the NFL), while the Texans have batted or tipped the most balls (37). The Bengals might have the hottest defense in the league right now, and I mean Melanie Iglesias hot, as they have scored a TD in each of the last three games and have held opponents to 12.8 ppg, while the Texans’ offense has gotten fat and lazy scoring 1 TD in their last 10 quarters. Both teams have beasts up front. Geno Atkins might be the best Defensive Tackle in the league with his 12.5 sacks which allows DE Michael Johnson to record some solid numbers as well 11.5 sacks. Oh yea, Schaub has been sacked 10 times in the last three games. For the Texans, JJ Watt was in the defensive player of the year discussion all year with a league leading 16 tips or bat-downs, a league leading 20.5 sacks, and a very respectable 4 forced fumbles. Either way, the Bengals has crushed opposing QB’s 51 times while the Texans are not too far off with 44 sacks of their own. The Bengals’ have one of the best dynamic duos at linebacker in Burfict and Maualuga (Combined 249 tackles-FUCKING EPIC to have two defenders over 100 tackles), while the Texans have had strong seasons from Jonathan Joseph and Clover Quin. The Texans have the better offense while the Bengals have the better defense. Watch out for a low scoring affair.
8:00pm-Minnesota Vikings (+9) vs. the Green Bay Packers
Adrian Peterson is smoking. I think if he just stood in the dry forests of Southern California, a large fire would erupt. The dude has average 171.2 ypg in the month of December, which is the highest average for a running back in a month in NFL history. He missed the fucking season rushing record by 9 yards. The Packers should have allowed him to run an extra 9 yards, someone should have called a timeout to give him one last shot, or they should just give him an additional 9 yards because Eric Dickerson is a prick. The Vikings dilemma is that they lost their best receiver Percy Harvin earlier this year which caused AP’s touches to increase and allowed them to burn the clock. Christian Ponder is by no means an effective QB and while he had a great game last week against the Packers ( 3 TD’s, no picks, and 234 yards passing for a QBR of 102.2), don’t think he can reenact those numbers on the road, in the Frozen Tundra. The good news for the Vikings is that AP has rushed for 409 yards and 3 TD’s in 2 games this year against the Packers, which keeps Rodgers off the field.
Aaron Rodgers has been solid over the last half of the season, and while he has all of his weapons, Jordy Nelson and James Jones will be playing injured. The Vikings pass defense is miserable ranking 31st in the league and their top corner Antoine Winfield will be playing injured if he even plays. The good news for them is that their rush defense is great ranking 2nd in the NFL and the Packers haven’t had a 100 yard rusher since weeks 5. They rank 20th in the league in rushing which means an unbalanced offense. Essentially, this game will be Rodgers vs. the entire Vikings defense as I see them keeping an additional corner in all game. Mason Crosby has also had a terrible year this year connecting on 21-33 field goals, while the rookie sensation Blair Walsh from the Vikings has been great making 35 of 28 attempts. The guy made the Pro Bowl. Division rivals meeting in the playoffs after playing each other the week before the playoffs and splitting the regular season in most likely freezing weather equals close game. Packers win in a nail biter.
Sunday Games
1:00pm-Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The world is screaming for an upset as the Colts are the feel good story of the year. Move over Rudy, the Miracle on Ice, and Vince Papale, Chuck Pagano and his crew have moved in. The Colts have fought and played at an extra level motivated by their coach’s fight with leukemia. They went from a 2-14 year to 11-5 with a rookie QB (Andrew Luck-4374) and a rookie running back (Vick Ballard-814 yards). They have rookie TE’s in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener and their #3 receive is rookie speedster T.Y Hilton. The Colts defense has looked sharp Enough over the last few weeks, but their lack of experience is going to be their demise. It’s not their fault, just a proven fact.
The Baltimore Ravens are returning to the playoffs for their 5th straight year under the Harbaugh/Flacco/Rice regime. They know what it takes to win as they have won in each of those years including two trips to the AFC championship. Although they lost this week, they were playing their second squad for 95% of the game, but the week before, their offense looked solid. The Colts defense has some holes which should fare well for a Ravens squad rested. Flacco (3817 yds and 22 TD’s) and Rice (1143 and 9 TD’s) are poised to have a big game against a team whose defense ranks 21st in opponent passing and 29th in rushing defense. The Ravens have one of the most underrated groups receiving the ball with Boldin, Smith, Pitta, and Jones and it seems like two weeks ago, when the Ravens played a pivotal, must-win game, they rose to the occasion and their new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell came in with a great game plan filled with schemes that rarely existed earlier in the year (QB option, roll-outs, and utilization in the middle of the field). The Ravens defense is the healthiest it has been all year as Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will be on the field together for the first time all year. Haloti Ngata rested last week as he has been hampered all year with injuries as did Bernard Pollard. Sure Chuck Pagano has a strong knowledge of the Ravens defense, but the Colts still fare poorly in the turnover battle as they have 26 turnovers (18 picks from Andrew Luck) to only 15 take aways while the Ravens finished the season at plus 9. Luck also tends to hold on the ball for too long, which bolds well for the ever dangerous Ed Reed and a Ravens team who I guarantee will be pressuring Luck all day. Sorry for those Colt supporters, but the Ravens at home, playing at their standard playoff level will cause the Colts to be overmatched by an angry, rested Ravens squad. Oh, and they have the motivation of winning for their general, Ray Lewis, who will most likely fighting his last battle at home.
4:30pm-Seattle Seahawks vs. the Washington Redskins (o46)
The Seahawks are the hottest team in the NFC right now. Their defense has been great and will only get better now that Brandon Browner has returned from his four game suspension for testing positive for adderal. His counterpart, the other cornerback Richard Sherman (8 interceptions), won his appeal and now enters the playoffs with a free mind. They also have Pro Bowler Earl Thomas at Free Safety which creates one badass secondary that ranks 6th in the NFL in opponent passing yards. At the front of the line stands Chris Clemons (11.5 sacks), who has the ability to beat the QB as badly as his legal charges. That said, the reason for their undeniable hot streak is the explosion of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Even though last week their offense threw up a dud in a win against the Rams (20-13), they had averaged 50/ppg from week 14-16. Oh yea, the Redskins defense ranks 28th in the NFL. Watch out for an offense that has the ability to make big plays who has a running back, Marshawn Lynch, known for making beast mode like plays in the playoffs (1590 yds and 11 TDs)
The Redskins have the most dynamic QB in the league in RG III. Although is 3200 passing yards is not game changing, he has 20 TD’s to 5 int., a rating of 102.4, and 815 rushing yards for 7 TD’s. Besides him, their rookie starting running back ended up 2nd in the NFL with 1613 rushing yards (Alfred Morris). Sure Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, and Fred Davis are not game changers, RG III is and thus their offense has big play ability. While they rank a measly 20th in passing yards per game, they lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (169.3). This should be a fun and exhausting game to watch.
Seeing how each team in the playoffs is theoretically 0-0, my record is the same.
Record
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