Lock-Street Week 4-9.30

New England Patriots (-4) vs. Buffalo Bills

Dear refs, watch your back. Gisele is angry and you don’t want Gisele angry. After her rant essentially directed at Wes Welker after he missed that vital catch in the super bowl, he'd been riding the pine before last week. There are obviously other aspects that have caused this demotion, but as a blogger it is my civic duty to create underlying turmoil that simply does not exist. Therefore, any notion that she is displeased with the men in stripes, they soon might find themselves in a terrible place.Well, actually it's too late. Anyway, if you think the New England Patriots are going to lie on their backs and die, you're out of your goddamn mind. This is first time they've been below .500 in 164 games. Belichick is going to ensure they decimate the lowly. Sure the Bills have a better record at 2-1, but their opponents’ combined record is 3-6. The Patriots lost against two good games by two awkward field goals as Stephen Gostkowski missed a potential game winner two weeks ago against a 3-0 Cardinals team and then they lost by Justin Tucker’s just-barely-made-it field goal. Their opponents’ record combines for 6-3. The Bills are going to get their first test, and boy will they be tested by a Patriots team that never loses more than 1 in a row, let alone more than 2.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not worth that contract extension from last year. Just because he went to Harvard does not mean money should thrown at him unnecessarily. Or maybe it does. What do I know? I didn't go to Harvard. Both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson have been bitten by the metaphorical injury bug that persists from the battle ground between lines. With an injured back field and their lack of offensive weapons, they only have one legit WR in Stevie Johnson (173 yards and 3 TD’s), they won’t be able to handle a shootout since their defense has not been as good as the money they have thrown at it in the off-season. While the Ravens amassed 503 offensive yards, Fitzpatrick is not Flacco and CJ Spiller is not Ray Rice. OK, so this game is going to be played in Orchard Park, N.Y (Buffalo), but it’s fall and the elements do not affect a team that plays in Boston anyway. Patriots win by at least 9 here.

Washington (+3) vs. Tampa Bay

 OK, is it too late to throw in a new candidate for president - RG3. He has DC buzzing more than Obama or Romney and even has a new pose. Both of these teams have a pass defense as good as Channing Tatum’s acting ability. The Redskins and Bucs seem to not have corners or safeties. They're 31^st and 32^nd in the league for pass defensse, the worst two in the NFL. Lucky for the Redskins,they are leading the league in points per game with 33. Thank god, because their defense has been anemic, allowing one of the league's worst yards per game averages. The Bucs offense won't be able to compete with a defense as poor as theirs as they're averaging 258.3 y/game and 149 passing yards per game so it’s not like they can take advantage of a secondary that would be better fitted for a high school team. RG3 has a better completion percentage, more rushing yards, more TD’s and less picks than Freeman so he wins the QB competition, which is going to be vital in this game.  While the Bucs have studs in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams, they just simply cannot stick with the Redskin’s offense right now. I would even go on to say that you should parlay the over, but when a bookie sees a parlay, they jerk off in excitement. Don't give them any joy.

Chicago vs. Dallas (o41.5)

 I think if you gave me pads and some equipment I could play better on the offensive line than anyone on either team. So Cutler had one horrendous game, one mediocre game, and one great game. You have a better chance of winning the lottery than predicting how big baby Jay is going to play. He started the season off with 333 yards and 2 TD’s against the Colts. Game 2, a prime time match-up against division foe Packers, he was sacked 7 times and picked 4 times. Then last week he was a mediocre 14 of 31 with 1 pick, but he helped lead the Bears to 20 first downs. Now Tony Romo is between 14^th-11^th in every major QB category, but if they provided some protection, he could heat up quicker than a junkie’s spoon. DeMarco Murray is a beast of a runner and the bears still have Matt Forte, although he is off to a slow, injury hampered start. It’s crazy to think that Michal Bush would be Chicago’s leading rusher after 3 games, but neither of their RB’s can gain any traction due to the offensive o-line.  While Dallas has allowed the least amount of yards in the NFL (750) and the Bears have allowed the 6^th best (837), there's going to be some sloppy play that will provide some solid field position for both teams. This game is either going to be a tight offensive shootout or a sloppy shootout but, either way, points will be scored.

Kyle's Lock-Street Season Record

So far my record has been altered by the long arm of shoddy replacement refs. My picks have been unjustifiably hampered by the SCABS in a referee jersey. Two weeks ago, my Ravens bet would have hit had it not been for a bogus offensive pass interference call. Last week proved to a greater extent how much this refs manipulated games when their call at the end of the Monday Night game, better known as the Immaculate FAIL, altered $150-500 million in bets, the analysts say. I feel bad for these men who were provided keys to a Porsche and totaled it. Due to their influences in the betting world, my advice for them is to stay away from any Italians in dark alleys. I also missed one game by half a point (Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49’s (O 46.5)-Week 2 ). As you can see below, your understanding of each team evolves throughout the season and is more apparent as your understanding of predicting the games progresses. That said, my analysis is more to provide you with the keys to make your own decisions. Good luck and now finally we can go back to complaining about the real refs.

RECORD

Week 3

2-1

Week 2

1-2

Week 1

0-1

Total 3-4

Total

3-4

The NFL stats above are taken from espn.com

-Kyle