Tuesday, November 29, 2011

NBA-OK? Kyle's post-strike pre-season B-ball prediction


So it is official: The NBA is back, but will it be better than ever? No way in hell. 

It appears that the players will receive 51.7% of BRI, which is Basketball Related Income in the 2011-2012 season. This means that they are the majority owners of the league. This is all well and good and there are several other stipulations within the contract; however, this article is not about the financial aspect of the new NBA, but what is in store for us as viewers when it finally returns.

 Here are the negatives and positives of this shortened season:

Negatives: 
  1.  Injury Prone 2012. So with a season starting in less than a month, Christmas Day to be exact, the players won’t be in game-time shape. As seen in the NFL due to their lockout, the injury level has increased substantially from the previous years. This is due to the body over-shocking itself after being dormant for so long. Yes, the players have kept busy by playing in summer leagues, doing their own training, and even playing overseas, but these environments are nothing compared to the fast-paced, strong, incomparably athletic players that each NBA player faces night-in and night-out. 
  2.   This season will be sloppy. Basketball takes a little more precision than the NFL. Games are based on runs which happen when players find their rhythm. Every game is based on how well a team weathers a scoring storm. Without enough of a preseason, dribbling will be off, passes and shots might as well be thrown wearing baseball gloves, and their conditioning will be subpar. This all leads to low-scoring affairs. As a gambling addict, get ready to bet a lot of unders.
  3. The cost of the games will increase due to a decrease in the games. Also, the amount of Conference games creates more rivalry matchups. As it is, the NFL is the most expensive ticket due to supply-demand of a 16 game season, followed by hockey and the NBA, then MLB. It’s going to be tough finding a ticket in the big markets.

Positives: 
  1. Games are more valuable. Currently, the league is planning on holding 66 games this season, 48 conference games and 18 games outside of conference. Although it will be only a reduction of 16 games per team, or around 20%, this means that there is a slight possibility that 20 losses means that a team would not make the playoffs. Whether they want you to believe it, NBA players do reserve their energy throughout the regular season until the playoffs get close at hand. Then they go full octane on everyone’s asses. 
  2. Cinderella Story. In every sport, there are teams that start off hot then falter when their skills actually come into play or the emotions are placed in check. As soon as the adrenaline leaves, the players’ abilities return to the waste sewer where they belong. Some examples are the 2011 Orioles and the 2011 Buffalo Bills. Both of these teams started strong until other teams realized that they actually suck. Once other teams get a read on how to play these teams, they’re usually pushed from the top spot and spiral down to the deepest abysses of rankings. Due to the slightly shorter season and the unpredictability of how the players will enter the season, a crappy team that starts hot could potentially hold on long enough to make it to the playoffs.  
  3. At least there is a season. There were many out there, including myself, that thought there wouldn’t be an NBA season this year. Luckily I was wrong, especially for cities like Los Angeles who have nothing but their basketball teams.

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