How the Oscars Can Win You Money and Conjugal Favors, Pt. 2

Continued from Part 1, the below-the-line and screenplay Oscars.

Now we’re getting down to the big show, the categories everybody knows, loves, watches for.

America is a voyeur culture. And nobody feeds our addiction better than celebrities. We’ve seen some of them naked. We’ve seen all of them at their most vulnerable. We’ve seen them laugh and cry. Sure, that was all in movies but the thing is, they’re good enough at their trade that we feel like we ACTUALLY saw them doing those things. It’s beautiful.

Even more, due to the explosion of tabloids, we not only know what they do on the silver screen but we know how they look in sweatpants without makeup, know who they’re dating, know what their favorite drinks are, what their pets are named; sometimes we even know what their homes look like, pouring over pictures of their kids fresh out of the incubator and eyewitness photos of their weddings.

In some ways, as we Americans learn to conduct whole relationships via virtual avenues, social networking sites and whatnot, it has become easier to see these famous folks, whose Twitter feeds people follow and whose public statements we devour, as something resembling “friends”.

And hell, I feel no emotion unless I’m watching a movie. Hell, I was blubbering like a baby for a good 1/3^rd of EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. So without further ado, part 2 of the Oscars lineup, the actors/actresses, directors, and the 10 "Best Movies" of the year - as well as the 1 winner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OCTAVIA SPENCER

My dad didn’t want to watch THE HELP because he thought it would be a chick flick. And yes, there are a lot of chicks. But in no way is this a chick flick. For most of the girls there is no happy ending with some hulking but misunderstood beau. In fact, for 2 of the main characters the end means finally leaving the assholes they’ve been with. Even more, this isn’t about girl power. It’s about racial equality. About how horrible southern whites were, especially the insane “Separate But Equal” housewives in Mississippi. And in spite of this heavy subject matter, which is smattered with unhappy relationships and occasional abuse, there was a vein of comic levity running through the whole damn thing powered by none other than this beautifully bug-eyed big mama herself, Octavia Spencer.

Berenice Bejo was certainly cute and did a damn good job tapping her inner flapper but often she felt like just another prop in THE ARTIST. Jessica Chastain was wild and kooky, or whatever, in THE HELP but there’s no way she’ll beat the woman who taught her how to cook and clean in the movie, Octavia. It’s huge that Melissa McCarthy was nominated – not only because she’s a, ahem, “full-figured” white woman but also because she’s in a raunchy comedy – this may open the way for Danny McBride winning an Oscar someday, right? And Janet McTeer did a good job as the cross-dressing friend in ALBERT NOBB but rarely do first-time nominees get the statue and certainly not for a role as understated as hers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER

Admittedly, I didn’t see this film, BEGINNERS. But it’s about a man who comes out of the closet late in life and explores his homosexuality when most others are perfecting their golf swing.  Oh yeah, and he’s taken this young gay lover because he’s terminally ill. This role is certainly a meaty one. Christopher Plummer is a great actor. And he’s been in movies since 1953 and never won an Oscar. And he swept all the other awards (Globes, SAG awards, BAFTAS).

Kenneth Branagh is good but his role in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN was so small and relatively unimportant, it seems he was nominated simply as a gesture to his long history as being a great actor (and, again, this is the year of Hollywood patting itself on the back). Jonah Hill’s gonna have to play a lot of emotional roles before anybody gives him an Oscar; he certainly won’t do it as a solid sidekick like in MONEYBALL. WARRIOR got all sorts of early Oscar whispers which fizzled out once the arty flicks sprouted up. Still, they had to give it something and certainly Nolte was the best. As for Von Sydow in EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, I didn’t feel like his role was that great. He just walks around silent and shows emotion through his eyes and gestures and “Yes” and “No” tattoed in his palm? Ehhh. This is not only a nod to this terrific September 11^th movie, which probably won’t win anything, but also to that whole “silent” thing running through HUGO and ARTIST. If anybody, that kid shoulda been nominated but then again maybe he’s just naturally disaffected and mentally unstable, in which case he wasn’t really acting.

Finally, the THREE POINTERS, the ones that can make or break your Oscar ballot if you assigns point values to the categories, 1 for the unknowns to 3 for the categories you should be on top of.

BEST ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS

This is the year of THE HELP. And Viola was certainly the strongest character, acting with a fierce silence that belied all the pent-up frustrations and failures that defined her life amidst America’s passive/aggressive 60’s racism.Especially when you see how she normally looks, the transformation to a put-upon, dumpy rural southern girl is nothing short of fucking huge.

Rooney Mara was good in GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO but the role gave little room for showing off her range – she had to be stone cold throughout and, honestly, Noomi Rapace in the original Swedish version did a better job. Plus Mara's family’s team won the Super Bowl so they’ve had enough good fortune for the year. Michelle Williams did damn good in MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, channeling the archetype of every boy’s wet dream but I feel like they gave her the Golden Globe so they didn’t have to give her the Oscar. Meryl Streep was amazing in IRON LADY but she’s already won so many times (and they gave her the Golden Globe for drama as well) I can’t see them awarding it to her (though you can never count Streep out). If anybody will beat Viola it’s Glenn Close who plays a woman who dresses like a man in ALBERT NOBBS. While I have often thought in certain roles Glenn Close naturally looked rather mannish (WORLD ACCORDING TO GARP showed me she’s truly a female version of a hybrid between John Lithgow and Robin Williams), in this movie she does it on purpose, tackling the currently hot issue of cross-dressing (and the bigger gender equality issues brought up by the movie); also, she’s been nominated 5 times for an Oscar but never won so it might just be her time, politically.

BEST ACTOR: GEORGE CLOONEY

George Clooney is Hollywood’s favorite leading man. Like a well-oiled baseball mitt, he just feels good, strong, American. It’s the old schtick, “men want to be him, women want to be with him.” Not to say he’s not a good actor; quite the opposite, he’s a pretty amazing actor. He’s been nominated once a year for the last few years for the Best Actor Oscar. And the women who act opposite him are nominated for Oscars. And sometimes they even win. It’s no coincidence. Like a good teamplayer, he elevates the game of everybody around him. In THE DESCENDANTS, he must have inspired groundbreaking performances from his young co-stars because both Shailene Woodley and the other girl were unreal. The role is such a subtle mindfuck that his ability to convey this perfect storm of emotions is truly phenomenal: jealousy, hatred, sadness, fear, confusion, regret. All of these were painted across his face, occasionally all at the same time, and yet he did it so effortlessly, so without grandstanding you almost didn’t notice it.

Dujardin was good in THE ACTOR, showing how a man can go from greatness to rock bottom in this fickle and ever-changing business, but many think he got the BAFTA and the SAG award so they could give Clooney his much-deserved first Lead Actor Oscar. Demian Bichir plays a Mexican in this remake of THE BICYCLE THIEF, entitled now A BETTER LIFE, and the Academy has not yet shown much love for the Illegal Immigrant plight. Also it's just an annoying movie all around. Gary Oldman is a great actor but TINKER TAILOR just isn’t that deep of a role. Though the John LeCarre novel was one of my favorites as a kid. And Brad Pitt was much better in plenty of movies than in MONEYBALL, a movie and role included, most likely, because it’s the most commercial of the bunch.

BEST DIRECTOR: MIKE HAZANAVICIUS

Hazanavicius said plenty of times the THE ARTIST is his love letter to Hollywood and Hollywood’s not gauche enough not to return in kind. Because it is. But the risks he must have taken in making this movie. I’m gonna shoot in black and white. It’ll be a silent film. Oh yeah, and the only known actor’s gonna be John Goodman in an ancillary role. He’ll have less dialogue than a dog, which will actually be the first supporting actor. I could imagine the looks of utter fear and confusion from the execs as Hazanavicius explained his vision. But yet it got made. And for making this risky movie and imbuing with some of the most unique stylization I’ve ever seen, he deserves it.

Woody Allen will probably get the screenplay Oscar for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS and that’s enough. Terrence Malick’s TREE OF LIFE is as arty as the Oscars is comfortable getting but it’s certainly not understandable by the average viewer, which I think is a big part of the Best Director Oscar. As I said before, Payne will probably win for THE DESCENDANTS the screenplay but his movie, while solid, wasn’t stylized enough (versus Malick’s which you could argue was all style over substance). And HUGO, while a great flick, isn’t gonna win. They just won’t give it to a kid’s flick’s director, especially if it's Scorcese who swept the Oscars just a few years ago.

Which brings me to the final category:

BEST PICTURE

Let’s do this different. Let’s go backwards, drumroll please and all that jazz. Yes, build to a final deafening crescendo and announce the movie you’ll all go Netflix on Monday.

It won’t be WAR HORSE. The movie is moving but there’s no real character development and the main character’s a horse. People like to see themselves. Also, what’s with the milksop wife and the weird sunset at the end?Annoying.

It won’t be THE TREE OF LIFE. As Kyle told me, it’s arty, maybe a bit too much for him. My wife hated it. I loved it because all the animal footage reminded me of PLANET EARTH and I liked how Malick used imagery to stand in for just straight up saying “hey, this is about the history of man, life, and death.” But there’s not really any plot and even more, the average American watches this movie and goes “what the fuck is this?”

It won’t be MONEYBALL. A solid movie but it’s pretty by the book. Very entertaining and one of my favorite flicks of the year (which is saying a lot since I hate sports movies) but it’s nothing groundbreaking and that’s always what they look for in this award.

It won’t be MIDNIGHT IN PARIS for reasons I’ve expounded on enough previously. Sorry Woody. Hope that whole marrying your daughter thing’s still working out. Keep up the European exile, it’s been great. And if not my favorite of the year, in the top 3.

HUGO won’t win because, again, it’s a kid’s movie. And it’s cute and whimsical but a lot of people have trouble looking at it as anything but a live-action comic cartoon, in spite of all its deep explorations of orphandom, WWI, Paris life, and, again, Hollywood’s illustrious history.

THE HELP won’t win. It swept the actress Oscars but it wasn’t shot and structured any special way and even more, it was a character piece with the plot as vehicle through the characters versus the other way more conducive to Best Picture awards.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE won’t win. The performances hardly garnered a whisper (other than von Sydow). Hollywood still doesn’t know how to approach September 11^th. Emotional, tugs on the heart strings, sure, but this just hasn’t gotten the buzz and attention needed to win.

By now you know what's gonna happen. THE DESCENDANTS won’t win. I’ve explained why before. A great movie but it just won’t. A damn shame because when it comes to emotionally-charged flicks, as well as family comedy, as well as coming of age, all of that - hell, when it just comes to favorite movies this may arguably be my favorite film of 2011. But for this competition, though, it won't get best picture. My predicted winner is just too unique, too revolutionary and at the same time too hip-ly retro. And it has all the momentum.

THE ARTIST will win Best Picture. It’s a celebration of the history of this amazing industry, of an art form and a world that literally grew out of nothing in the last hundred years. And through that tumult and evolution, a lot of people were lifted to great heights and almost as quickly dashed down to rock bottom. Hollywood’s fickle, a place where dreams are made and destroyed (and more often the latter than the former). But in spite of all the bullshit and the depths towards which a dashed soul can sink, there’s still this redeeming factor to the town and the business that makes it okay. The happy ending. The loyalty which runs through this industry greater than almost any other I’ve ever seen. I mean, this right here is the essence. Peel back all the marketing schemes and test markets and executives and buyouts, there remains one shining difference between Hollywood and everything else: it’s a complex money-power mechanism to make the highest art. And this is a celebration of that.

So there you have it.

Mark down all the answers above and from Wednesday and challenge somebody who’s not in the know to a little gamble. And again, unlike other games, this time you can get the girls involved, trade for “services rendered”, oral agreements and whatnot. Like Kyle always says when doing Lock-Street, none of this is 100%. But it’s about as damn close as you can get.

And hell, it might just make the Oscars worth watching this year. At least that horrible Anne Hathaway won't be hosting again.

Oh yeah, and maybe you'll need a tie-breaker if they know the movies themselves, right? Okay, so why don't you both put down whatever you think the movie with the most Oscars will be and give the number. (THE ARTIST, 4). Or you can predict who gets the loudest applause during the dead people celebration (either Elizabeth Taylor or Sidney Lumet)

- Ryan